20 YEARS LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF A VALID CRITERION FOR SUICIDE PREDICTION (LSVCSP)
Dzub Grigory*, Orlova Nataliia and Shkliar Mykhailo
ABSTRACT
Background: Suicide keeps one of the most unpredictable human actions. World Health Organization lists plenty reasons for it commission. Definition of high-risk groups and prevention of suicides remain the current importance. We proposed an original hypothesis for suicidal readiness detection. Material and methods: For 20 years period 210 individuals voluntarily agreed to take part in the research. We divided 150 participants with suicide attempts to the main group and 60 respondents without suicide to healthy controls. Both groups were representative of age and sex. The suicidal risks were analyzed by the clinical interview and psychodiagnostics methods followed by modified Dembo-Rubinstein’s self-assessment test and F.Hoppe’s technique. Results: The F.Hoppe’s test shown significance among main suicide group – 22,6±3,6 point and healthy controls group – 10,9±5,1 points (p<0,001). The Dembo-Rubinstein’s assessment indicated 24,1±3,4 and 14,9±3,8 points i(p<0,001) respectively. The difference in data for both methods characterized the degree of dissociation between a high level of claims and a low level of self-esteem. The technique demonstrated high rates in sensitivity - 81%, specificity - 96%, and positive predictive value - 98%. Conclusions: The study obtained the confirmation of the hypothesis with high confidence. We presented a valid indicator of suicide prediction and future risk assessment. The presence of anti-suicidal clinical components indicates a lower risk of repeated and completed suicides. Was found that in the mechanism of all types of suicides is present the dissociation between low self-esteem and a high level of requirements.
Keywords: Suicide, valid criterion, predictive validity.
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